Spain’s intelligence and security agencies had warned of mass migration into the Spanish enclave. According to 40 documents declassified on Wednesday, the government and Moroccan counterparts were warned a day before more than 70,000 people crossed into Ceuta.The documents, which include intelligence reports, alerts and internal communications from July 1 to 31, show that Spanish agencies were tracking a growing movement of migrants and online calls for a mass crossing before the surge on July 30.The disclosures have put renewed pressure on Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who has insisted that the government had no information indicating the scale or nature of the influx that followed.
Intelligence warnings came a day before surge
On July 29, Spain’s National Intelligence Centre (CNI) warned of calls on social media for migrants to enter Ceuta by climbing the border fence or swimming around it the following day.In a WhatsApp message to the Spanish government’s delegation in Ceuta, the CNI warned of calls for “an assault on the fence and by sea tomorrow at 8 pm”The agency said two social media groups involved in the mobilisation had a combined 180,000 followers.“There are two different groups with a total of 180,000 followers. Just to give you an idea of the scale,” the CNI wrote.The CNI also alerted Spain’s Civil Guard and sent a report to Moroccan intelligence agencies DGST and DGED about plans to enter Ceuta on July 30. The warnings said migrants could try to take advantage of Morocco’s annual Throne Day celebrations.A separate urgent memo referred to “several calls to carry out entries into Ceuta” on Facebook, including one group with more than 160,000 members.
Warnings showed crisis was already building
The declassified material indicates the mass crossing did not emerge without warning.Spain’s National Police border division, CENIF, said almost 1,000 people had swum into Ceuta from Morocco between July 1 and July 28. It described the increase as a “drastic upward trend compared to last year” and a “consolidated and priority threat”.A Spanish defence ministry presentation on July 30 said around 1,700 migrants had arrived by sea since July 25. It warned that “more intrusions are to be expected in the very short-term” and described the situation on the Moroccan coast near Ceuta as “migratory chaos”.The intelligence reports also said many people were already waiting to enter the water on the night of July 29. Several hundred migrants subsequently swam towards Ceuta.
Documents raise questions over Morocco’s role
Reports issued after the crossings began also raised questions over the conduct of Moroccan security forces.A military intelligence assessment on July 30 said it was “highly likely that the Moroccan authorities are not actively encouraging the migratory wave, but have so far acted in a negligent and passive manner”.Another CNI report said: “At the operational level, no proactive response from Moroccan authorities was observed regarding the loss of control over the situation, beyond the deployment of a few riot control units.”It said the increased presence of Moroccan police and gendarmes had proved insufficient to control the crowd.The Spanish government has stopped short of saying Morocco orchestrated the episode. Sánchez said last week that there was no evidence to conclude that Moroccan authorities had planned or carried out the border rush.His position has come under renewed scrutiny after a leaked Spanish police report alleged “permissiveness” by Moroccan security forces.The Moroccan foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Sánchez disputes warning about scale
Sánchez has acknowledged that the social media campaign was known to authorities but rejected the suggestion that it amounted to a warning of the crisis that followed.“The existence of this campaign was known … and was being monitored, but in no way did it constitute or could it be interpreted as an indicator of the scale, nature, or probability of what happened afterward,” Sánchez wrote on X on Wednesday.Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares also defended the government’s position.“I am speaking as Spain’s foreign minister, within my remit and based on what I experienced that day. I was not aware of any information of any kind pointing to the magnitude of the avalanche,” Albares told reporters.The government argues that while agencies knew about planned crossings, the intelligence did not indicate that tens of thousands of migrants would enter Ceuta.
Crisis continues weeks after mass crossing
The July 30-31 surge has also left a prolonged humanitarian crisis in the Spanish enclave.NGOs estimate that more than 140 migrants died during the mass crossing. Local authorities say more than 10,000 migrants, including unaccompanied minors, remain in Ceuta, while the national government has put the figure at around 5,000.Many are living in makeshift camps or on streets and beaches. The situation has triggered near-daily protests by residents angry over the government’s handling of the crisis.The release of the documents is expected to intensify the political dispute over whether Spanish authorities acted quickly enough despite receiving warnings in the days and hours before the mass crossing.
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